Apple Maturity "Predicted Harvest Dates" Formula
Here are the formulas I use and an example of how to calculate for 2004.
Predicted Harvest Dates
McIntosh has 3 models, (take an average of the three)
30 day average of ((Minimum daily temp)-50) after full bloom date
Take this number and subtract from full bloom date + 120 days
For us this year
Full Bloom Date: May 5
Average 30 day (Min temp) – 50: -3
May 5 + 120 – (-3) = Sept 4
21 day total of ((Average Daily temp)-40) after full bloom date
Take this number and multiply by -.057 then + 144.5 + full bloom date
For us this year
21 day total: 396
* -.057=: -22.6
Add to May 5 + 144.5 = Sept 3
30 day total of average temp *-.058 + 226
For us this year:
30 day total of average temp: 1769
*-.058=: -102.6
Add to May 5 + 226 = Sept 5
Average these dates to get Sept 4 for Macs
Jonathan and Red Delicious
Take Average of (15 day Minimum temp-50)
For us this year = -.8
For Jons Full bloom date (May 6) +137 -.8 = Sept 20
For Reds Full bloom date ( May 6) +143 -.8 = Sept 26
Phil
Monday, April 9, 2007
Friday, April 6, 2007
Sooty blotch and fly speck model for apple
There are several versions:
The simplest version and original version is by Brown and Sutton, North Carolina State University:
The model begins 10 days after petal fall. If a wetting period, rain or heavy dew exceeds 3 hours, the number of hours is recorded. The first symptoms are expected when the accumulated hours of wetting reaches the range of 240 to 290.
There is a version of this model that estimates that rainfall amount and fungicide application information can be used to predict flyspeck appearance. This is a quote from an article by Dave Rosenberger of Cornell University in the Scaffolds Newsletter "Five days later, and after exactly 270 hr of accumulated wetting counting from the fungicide wash-off date of 22 Aug., incidence of flyspeck jumped to 27-64% in all except the Pristine plots. Data from this trial suggests that none of our fungicides (with the possible exception of Pristine) will provide fruit protection through more than 2 inches of rain, and the results verify the accuracy of the 270-hr incubation period for flyspeck."
The simplest version and original version is by Brown and Sutton, North Carolina State University:
The model begins 10 days after petal fall. If a wetting period, rain or heavy dew exceeds 3 hours, the number of hours is recorded. The first symptoms are expected when the accumulated hours of wetting reaches the range of 240 to 290.
There is a version of this model that estimates that rainfall amount and fungicide application information can be used to predict flyspeck appearance. This is a quote from an article by Dave Rosenberger of Cornell University in the Scaffolds Newsletter "Five days later, and after exactly 270 hr of accumulated wetting counting from the fungicide wash-off date of 22 Aug., incidence of flyspeck jumped to 27-64% in all except the Pristine plots. Data from this trial suggests that none of our fungicides (with the possible exception of Pristine) will provide fruit protection through more than 2 inches of rain, and the results verify the accuracy of the 270-hr incubation period for flyspeck."
New features I would like to see in Enviroweather
Sooty blotch and fly speck model
-- Description: uses petal fall biofix and hours of wetting to predict when control for these two diseases of apples is probably needed
Apple maturity predictor
-- Description: uses bloom dates & temperatures for the first month following bloom to predict the start of the main CA harvest window for the major apple varieties
Activities / phenologies driven by degree days
-- User can scroll through the growing season by degree days and see what insect and disease issues are likely of concern.. This is a web based and link rich version of the charts found in E154 "Fruit Management Guide"
-- Description: uses petal fall biofix and hours of wetting to predict when control for these two diseases of apples is probably needed
Apple maturity predictor
-- Description: uses bloom dates & temperatures for the first month following bloom to predict the start of the main CA harvest window for the major apple varieties
Activities / phenologies driven by degree days
-- User can scroll through the growing season by degree days and see what insect and disease issues are likely of concern.. This is a web based and link rich version of the charts found in E154 "Fruit Management Guide"
Purpose for Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup
The new Michigan State University web site www.enviroweather.msu.edu is fast becoming useful as a source of weather related information pertinent to agriculture in Michigan.
After conversations with Mike Brewer and Mark Trent, both of the MSU IPM Program, I as one of the people in the background agreed to help re-initiate the informal workgroup providing suggestions and priorities for enhancement of the tree fruit component of Enviroweather. Many of the great features of Enviroweather are due to past input of this informal group and it would be great to see this continue.
As in the past I see this Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup as an informal group operating through email and perhaps an occasional meeting as needed and as time permits.
This is a busy time of year, but it is also when many of the ideas for new features may occur to you.
I would invite people using or interested in improving Enviroweather to join me through this Blog to suggest changes, new features, likes & dislikes. The blog format appears to lend itself to multi-person input from within and without Michigan State University, it has archival capacities, and hopefully is easy to use.
After conversations with Mike Brewer and Mark Trent, both of the MSU IPM Program, I as one of the people in the background agreed to help re-initiate the informal workgroup providing suggestions and priorities for enhancement of the tree fruit component of Enviroweather. Many of the great features of Enviroweather are due to past input of this informal group and it would be great to see this continue.
As in the past I see this Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup as an informal group operating through email and perhaps an occasional meeting as needed and as time permits.
This is a busy time of year, but it is also when many of the ideas for new features may occur to you.
I would invite people using or interested in improving Enviroweather to join me through this Blog to suggest changes, new features, likes & dislikes. The blog format appears to lend itself to multi-person input from within and without Michigan State University, it has archival capacities, and hopefully is easy to use.
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