The section: "weather summary, including temperature, degree days, and rainfall"
could be improved by providing data for the current day, especially rainfall information. This is nearly always a question that follows a look at this daily weather summary. The information for the partial day could be labeled as to how many hours are included in the partial day summary.
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
Plum Curculio Model - Mark Whalon
I think that tree fruit growers could use an updated Plum Curculio phenology model.
Mark Whalon
Mark Whalon
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Small Fruit Insect Proposals
Hi Bill,
Thanks for the invitation to join the group. We are starting from a position of relatively little background research on models for small fruits so any progress will be good. I hope this can be an area for growth in the next few years. If we want growers to use this system, we have to have useful tools in place. I am excited to have a few ongoing projects funded by GREEEN, each including a component that will feed into enviroweather.
One is to develop and validate models for blueberry fruitworms (cranberry and cherry fruitworm) and the other to do this for grape berry moth. We are setting up a dummy webpage with Tracy to test the GBM model to see how well our predictions fit the 2007 season. If that goes well I would like to have this live for the 2008 season to get it into the hands of extension educators.
Other potential items to put on the wish list:
Blueberry crop phenology model. Start with Bluecrop and go from there.
OBLR. We have a model in apple so this could easily be translated onto a blueberry page.
Tussock moth. I have 2 years of GDD data for this in blueberry and we are gathering a third set this year.
Thanks for the invitation to join the group. We are starting from a position of relatively little background research on models for small fruits so any progress will be good. I hope this can be an area for growth in the next few years. If we want growers to use this system, we have to have useful tools in place. I am excited to have a few ongoing projects funded by GREEEN, each including a component that will feed into enviroweather.
One is to develop and validate models for blueberry fruitworms (cranberry and cherry fruitworm) and the other to do this for grape berry moth. We are setting up a dummy webpage with Tracy to test the GBM model to see how well our predictions fit the 2007 season. If that goes well I would like to have this live for the 2008 season to get it into the hands of extension educators.
Other potential items to put on the wish list:
Blueberry crop phenology model. Start with Bluecrop and go from there.
OBLR. We have a model in apple so this could easily be translated onto a blueberry page.
Tussock moth. I have 2 years of GDD data for this in blueberry and we are gathering a third set this year.
grape powdery mildew model
Suggested grape powdery mildew model for enviroweather from Annemiek Schilder
Grape powdery mildew ascospore release warning into the Enviro-weather system?
Ascospores are released from overwintered cleistothecia on the bark of grapvines when > 0.1 inch (2.5 mm) of rain occurs and the average temperature is >50ºF (10ºC) during that period (some publications say at least 0.1 inch rain and 50ºF). Ascospores are released from bud break (Late April-early May) through bloom and early fruit set (late June-early July). The ascospores do not require leaf wetness for infection, so theoretically any time green tissue is present and ascospores are released, infection is possible.
An ascospore release warning could indicate that people need to start scouting the leaves for powdery mildew colonies. Also, the more of these ascospore release events occur, the higher the risk of a severe powdery mildew epidemic, especially if these events occur at bloom and early fruit set, which is the critical time for fruit infection). Wayne Wilcox found a very strong relationship between the severity of fruit infection at harvest and the number of “primary infection periods” (>0.10 inches rain + temperatures >50°F) that occurred from just before bloom until fruit set (see Table below). Similarly, years in which 4 or more such events occurred during this fruit growth stage were typified by severe outbreaks of powdery mildew region-wide.
Year % Fruit surface Number infection periods*
infected Just before bloom to fruit set
1988 <1 2
1989 25 7
1991 1 2
1994 61 7
1995 7 3
1996 31 6
*Infection period = > 0.1 inch of rain and temperature > 50° F.
Grape powdery mildew ascospore release warning into the Enviro-weather system?
Ascospores are released from overwintered cleistothecia on the bark of grapvines when > 0.1 inch (2.5 mm) of rain occurs and the average temperature is >50ºF (10ºC) during that period (some publications say at least 0.1 inch rain and 50ºF). Ascospores are released from bud break (Late April-early May) through bloom and early fruit set (late June-early July). The ascospores do not require leaf wetness for infection, so theoretically any time green tissue is present and ascospores are released, infection is possible.
An ascospore release warning could indicate that people need to start scouting the leaves for powdery mildew colonies. Also, the more of these ascospore release events occur, the higher the risk of a severe powdery mildew epidemic, especially if these events occur at bloom and early fruit set, which is the critical time for fruit infection). Wayne Wilcox found a very strong relationship between the severity of fruit infection at harvest and the number of “primary infection periods” (>0.10 inches rain + temperatures >50°F) that occurred from just before bloom until fruit set (see Table below). Similarly, years in which 4 or more such events occurred during this fruit growth stage were typified by severe outbreaks of powdery mildew region-wide.
Year % Fruit surface Number infection periods*
infected Just before bloom to fruit set
1988 <1 2
1989 25 7
1991 1 2
1994 61 7
1995 7 3
1996 31 6
*Infection period = > 0.1 inch of rain and temperature > 50° F.
Building priorities for mid summer revisions of enviroweather for fruit crops
Suggestions from Amy Irish-Brown
MSU Extension Educator, Tree Fruit Pest Management
Short Term
· One column layout for fireblight – 40 hours
This is somewhat like the fireblight model in the old scud system where you can enter a biofix and track several infection periods and their projected symptom appearance date. This will be easier to do “what if” scenarios in this form
Amy: I’m not sure how useful this is – I think growers are only interested in when the infections or high risk for infections are predicted, so they can cover up, but I guess they would like to know what date they can stop worrying about FB showing up.
· Predicted harvest dates based on green tip dates – 40 hours (Phil’s maturity model)
We don’t need this until a month after bloom.
Amy: This is important to get done sometime, but clientele won’t be looking for it until July or August.
· Add regional rainfall to regional wetting report – 20 hours
Amy: I think this would be very useful – growers want to know how much rainfall there was to know if they’re still covered or not.
· GDD list of phenologies/activities – 60 hours
This will show what significant tree fruit insect pest stages are predicted to be happening based on the current degree days.
Amy: What a great idea – if we can agree on what stages occur at what DD’s
· Changing dates for start of models – 20 hours
Don’t show cherry leaf spot and grape black rot models early in the season when not needed
Amy: This is a little annoying, but not a big deal to me.
· Hourly integrator for apple scab – 20 hours
Intended to fix situations like this spring when dropping air temperatures can miss an infection period if the whole wetting period is used for the Mills table.
Amy: I rank this as my number one priority to see done.
· Show hourly data associated with a wetting period – 20 hours
Bob’s idea that it would be nice to be able to see the hourly data in order to check scab model performance.
Amy: I don’t think growers would be as interested in hourly info as we educators are – we have to remember who our primary audience it.
Long Term
· Cougarblight--Add biofix feature
Amy: I have no experience with Cougarblight, so have no real pressing need to see this done until perhaps next season.
· Sooty blotch and fly speck
Not needed until about July.
Amy: Since we have to capability to create this model easy enough, it should be done, but it’s not the biggest concern growers have, so it could be on a list for next season.
From Nikki:
Another thing for Enviroweather.... I talked with Rufus today, and we remembered Annemeik putting together some slides that talk about powdery mildew infection in grape... that you have so many infection periods before you will start to see symptoms. She is not in the country right now, but I think it would be good to add that feature to the list for fruit on Enviroweather. I can't give you more information right now--hopefully Annemiek will be in email contact. Do you know anything about this 'model'?
MSU Extension Educator, Tree Fruit Pest Management
Short Term
· One column layout for fireblight – 40 hours
This is somewhat like the fireblight model in the old scud system where you can enter a biofix and track several infection periods and their projected symptom appearance date. This will be easier to do “what if” scenarios in this form
Amy: I’m not sure how useful this is – I think growers are only interested in when the infections or high risk for infections are predicted, so they can cover up, but I guess they would like to know what date they can stop worrying about FB showing up.
· Predicted harvest dates based on green tip dates – 40 hours (Phil’s maturity model)
We don’t need this until a month after bloom.
Amy: This is important to get done sometime, but clientele won’t be looking for it until July or August.
· Add regional rainfall to regional wetting report – 20 hours
Amy: I think this would be very useful – growers want to know how much rainfall there was to know if they’re still covered or not.
· GDD list of phenologies/activities – 60 hours
This will show what significant tree fruit insect pest stages are predicted to be happening based on the current degree days.
Amy: What a great idea – if we can agree on what stages occur at what DD’s
· Changing dates for start of models – 20 hours
Don’t show cherry leaf spot and grape black rot models early in the season when not needed
Amy: This is a little annoying, but not a big deal to me.
· Hourly integrator for apple scab – 20 hours
Intended to fix situations like this spring when dropping air temperatures can miss an infection period if the whole wetting period is used for the Mills table.
Amy: I rank this as my number one priority to see done.
· Show hourly data associated with a wetting period – 20 hours
Bob’s idea that it would be nice to be able to see the hourly data in order to check scab model performance.
Amy: I don’t think growers would be as interested in hourly info as we educators are – we have to remember who our primary audience it.
Long Term
· Cougarblight--Add biofix feature
Amy: I have no experience with Cougarblight, so have no real pressing need to see this done until perhaps next season.
· Sooty blotch and fly speck
Not needed until about July.
Amy: Since we have to capability to create this model easy enough, it should be done, but it’s not the biggest concern growers have, so it could be on a list for next season.
From Nikki:
Another thing for Enviroweather.... I talked with Rufus today, and we remembered Annemeik putting together some slides that talk about powdery mildew infection in grape... that you have so many infection periods before you will start to see symptoms. She is not in the country right now, but I think it would be good to add that feature to the list for fruit on Enviroweather. I can't give you more information right now--hopefully Annemiek will be in email contact. Do you know anything about this 'model'?
Monday, April 9, 2007
Predicted Harvest Dates
Apple Maturity "Predicted Harvest Dates" Formula
Here are the formulas I use and an example of how to calculate for 2004.
Predicted Harvest Dates
McIntosh has 3 models, (take an average of the three)
30 day average of ((Minimum daily temp)-50) after full bloom date
Take this number and subtract from full bloom date + 120 days
For us this year
Full Bloom Date: May 5
Average 30 day (Min temp) – 50: -3
May 5 + 120 – (-3) = Sept 4
21 day total of ((Average Daily temp)-40) after full bloom date
Take this number and multiply by -.057 then + 144.5 + full bloom date
For us this year
21 day total: 396
* -.057=: -22.6
Add to May 5 + 144.5 = Sept 3
30 day total of average temp *-.058 + 226
For us this year:
30 day total of average temp: 1769
*-.058=: -102.6
Add to May 5 + 226 = Sept 5
Average these dates to get Sept 4 for Macs
Jonathan and Red Delicious
Take Average of (15 day Minimum temp-50)
For us this year = -.8
For Jons Full bloom date (May 6) +137 -.8 = Sept 20
For Reds Full bloom date ( May 6) +143 -.8 = Sept 26
Phil
Here are the formulas I use and an example of how to calculate for 2004.
Predicted Harvest Dates
McIntosh has 3 models, (take an average of the three)
30 day average of ((Minimum daily temp)-50) after full bloom date
Take this number and subtract from full bloom date + 120 days
For us this year
Full Bloom Date: May 5
Average 30 day (Min temp) – 50: -3
May 5 + 120 – (-3) = Sept 4
21 day total of ((Average Daily temp)-40) after full bloom date
Take this number and multiply by -.057 then + 144.5 + full bloom date
For us this year
21 day total: 396
* -.057=: -22.6
Add to May 5 + 144.5 = Sept 3
30 day total of average temp *-.058 + 226
For us this year:
30 day total of average temp: 1769
*-.058=: -102.6
Add to May 5 + 226 = Sept 5
Average these dates to get Sept 4 for Macs
Jonathan and Red Delicious
Take Average of (15 day Minimum temp-50)
For us this year = -.8
For Jons Full bloom date (May 6) +137 -.8 = Sept 20
For Reds Full bloom date ( May 6) +143 -.8 = Sept 26
Phil
Friday, April 6, 2007
Sooty blotch and fly speck model for apple
There are several versions:
The simplest version and original version is by Brown and Sutton, North Carolina State University:
The model begins 10 days after petal fall. If a wetting period, rain or heavy dew exceeds 3 hours, the number of hours is recorded. The first symptoms are expected when the accumulated hours of wetting reaches the range of 240 to 290.
There is a version of this model that estimates that rainfall amount and fungicide application information can be used to predict flyspeck appearance. This is a quote from an article by Dave Rosenberger of Cornell University in the Scaffolds Newsletter "Five days later, and after exactly 270 hr of accumulated wetting counting from the fungicide wash-off date of 22 Aug., incidence of flyspeck jumped to 27-64% in all except the Pristine plots. Data from this trial suggests that none of our fungicides (with the possible exception of Pristine) will provide fruit protection through more than 2 inches of rain, and the results verify the accuracy of the 270-hr incubation period for flyspeck."
The simplest version and original version is by Brown and Sutton, North Carolina State University:
The model begins 10 days after petal fall. If a wetting period, rain or heavy dew exceeds 3 hours, the number of hours is recorded. The first symptoms are expected when the accumulated hours of wetting reaches the range of 240 to 290.
There is a version of this model that estimates that rainfall amount and fungicide application information can be used to predict flyspeck appearance. This is a quote from an article by Dave Rosenberger of Cornell University in the Scaffolds Newsletter "Five days later, and after exactly 270 hr of accumulated wetting counting from the fungicide wash-off date of 22 Aug., incidence of flyspeck jumped to 27-64% in all except the Pristine plots. Data from this trial suggests that none of our fungicides (with the possible exception of Pristine) will provide fruit protection through more than 2 inches of rain, and the results verify the accuracy of the 270-hr incubation period for flyspeck."
New features I would like to see in Enviroweather
Sooty blotch and fly speck model
-- Description: uses petal fall biofix and hours of wetting to predict when control for these two diseases of apples is probably needed
Apple maturity predictor
-- Description: uses bloom dates & temperatures for the first month following bloom to predict the start of the main CA harvest window for the major apple varieties
Activities / phenologies driven by degree days
-- User can scroll through the growing season by degree days and see what insect and disease issues are likely of concern.. This is a web based and link rich version of the charts found in E154 "Fruit Management Guide"
-- Description: uses petal fall biofix and hours of wetting to predict when control for these two diseases of apples is probably needed
Apple maturity predictor
-- Description: uses bloom dates & temperatures for the first month following bloom to predict the start of the main CA harvest window for the major apple varieties
Activities / phenologies driven by degree days
-- User can scroll through the growing season by degree days and see what insect and disease issues are likely of concern.. This is a web based and link rich version of the charts found in E154 "Fruit Management Guide"
Purpose for Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup
The new Michigan State University web site www.enviroweather.msu.edu is fast becoming useful as a source of weather related information pertinent to agriculture in Michigan.
After conversations with Mike Brewer and Mark Trent, both of the MSU IPM Program, I as one of the people in the background agreed to help re-initiate the informal workgroup providing suggestions and priorities for enhancement of the tree fruit component of Enviroweather. Many of the great features of Enviroweather are due to past input of this informal group and it would be great to see this continue.
As in the past I see this Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup as an informal group operating through email and perhaps an occasional meeting as needed and as time permits.
This is a busy time of year, but it is also when many of the ideas for new features may occur to you.
I would invite people using or interested in improving Enviroweather to join me through this Blog to suggest changes, new features, likes & dislikes. The blog format appears to lend itself to multi-person input from within and without Michigan State University, it has archival capacities, and hopefully is easy to use.
After conversations with Mike Brewer and Mark Trent, both of the MSU IPM Program, I as one of the people in the background agreed to help re-initiate the informal workgroup providing suggestions and priorities for enhancement of the tree fruit component of Enviroweather. Many of the great features of Enviroweather are due to past input of this informal group and it would be great to see this continue.
As in the past I see this Enviroweather Tree Fruit Subgroup as an informal group operating through email and perhaps an occasional meeting as needed and as time permits.
This is a busy time of year, but it is also when many of the ideas for new features may occur to you.
I would invite people using or interested in improving Enviroweather to join me through this Blog to suggest changes, new features, likes & dislikes. The blog format appears to lend itself to multi-person input from within and without Michigan State University, it has archival capacities, and hopefully is easy to use.
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